Every Thursday on our WebFN TV show "Doctor J & the Traders" we talk a little about the ongoing Enron disaster, and usually preface the conversation by saying "At the risk of beating a dead horse". What happens if the horse you thought was dead keeps trying to kick you? This week-end I read several enlightening articles containing many new and interesting facts regarding the company and their long involvement with various elected officials of both parties. I was especially impressed by an article in the Chicago Tribune by Stephen Hedges, Jeff Zeleny, and Frank James. They set out in fairly clear detail the involvement of Enron CEO Kenneth Lay with the current and former administrations, as well as the interesting role played by former CFTC Chairman Wendy Gramm. The question we must be discussing is what ramifications do these revelations have on our ongoing investment strategy? What business does someone writing a business column have crossing over into the political arena? The simple answer is that as long as businesses are able to feed handsomely at the government trough or influence either lawmakers or law enforcers to their relative benefit, politics and investing are very interrelated. In this particular case it appears that Enron made a concerted effort to become very close to both lawmakers and law enforcers through large contributions, service on various policy committees, social interaction, etc. What does it mean when a lawmaker, elected by the populace, accepts a large check from an individual or entity? Is it a flat out bribe? I would not go that far and use that bad word "bribe". Is it an investment in general good government? I think we were not born yesterday. The truth is that the check is somewhere between a bribe and harmless encouragement to do a good job. The term that I have encountered, used by the lobbyists and justifiers of such activity, is "guaranteeing access". I guess that means that even though you are unable at the present time to articulate a particular favor or advantage, you reserve the right to press the issue at a later date. As
both a citizen and investor you need to have confidence that there
is some sound judgment on the part of elected and appointed officials,
and that there is some general commitment to a level competitive playing
field. Is the seemingly ever-increasing flow of money and influence
peddling causing a growing lack of political and investor confidence
in the system? I think
there is a danger of that.
The executives of the major tobacco companies testified under oath
to Congress a few years back that they had no evidence of the dangers
of tobacco use, with no negative consequences. Some major brokerage
firms have made great strides in gaining control over the formerly
competitive options exchanges under the tenure of SEC Chairman Arthur
Levitt, a serious fund raiser for the Clinton administration. The
new Bush justice department essentially tanked the Microsoft conviction
after the company's increased Washington presence and active role
in the last election. Former CFTC Chairman Wendy Gramm was appointed
as a public director, yes, public director, to the Enron Board soon
after favoring a CFTC rule change exempting many Enron OTC energy
trades from federal oversight. Certainly there are political writers with more knowledge and insight into various dishonest statements and dirty deeds than this one. My issue as a business writer and money manager is how does it affect my fiduciary responsibility towards my clients and the funds managed by PTI Securities? Right now I have zero confidence in the ability of lawmakers to do the job they have been sent to do. The muck is too deep, the list of favors owed is too long to count on them to maintain a level field. I also have no belief in the honesty of virtually all CEO's that are in the public eye. The term "two bit carnival huckster" comes to mind. On the other hand, I have tremendous confidence in the long-term ability of the U.S. people and economy. Where does that leave me? It means that I am very concerned with any unhedged stock position that is greater than 10% of the value of the portfolio. Towards that end we are moving away from individual stock risk and even modest concentration. It also means that we are placing a lot of new money in products known as unit investment trusts, such as SPY and QQQ, that are essentially widely diversified baskets of stocks. Finally, it means that we are protecting the value of the assets of the portfolio through the aggressive use of long-term put protection. Confidence in the economy is one thing, but being careful is still a wise policy. Next time we will talk again about order execution. |
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