It is the morning of June 28, 2002 and the market seems to be building a little on the tremendous turn-around yesterday. With the market’s dismal performance over the last 18 months and particularly over the last two weeks, there is precious little interest on the part of investors in doing anything but selling. There is a huge weight of corporate malfeasance, lack of political leadership, a laughable performance by the SEC, and just plain thievery hanging over the market. Stocks are being sold at an alarming pace, led in part by redemptions at mutual funds which can cause stock selling without regard to value, not at all a pretty picture. What
is a PTI client to do? It is virtually certain that anyone who has
been invested in the market, despite a possible call selling program
or some put protection, is not having a good year - SO FAR! It may
be a good time for some to review an old article of mine in the Dollars
and Sense archives on the differences between trading and investing.
In that article I talk about liking a stock or the market but recognizing
that the price is too high, or conversely hating a company or the
market but finding the price favorable. It is really no different
than having a city in recession, maybe losing a large convention,
enabling you to purchase a cab license for a discount price from someone
convinced Armageddon is at hand. I believe that current prices in
the stock market are at levels that may enable an investor to pick
survivor companies and possibly set up their portfolios for years
to come. How
difficult is it for someone having an awful year investing to step
back, ignore the pain of the recent past, and make a clear valuation
decision in a wounded state. I’ll tell you, it’s real hard. Many is
the day in my 20 years in the OEX where I was run over by one-way
paper but was able to make a save by being the last name on the ticket
at the lowest price. For example, the broker may start selling calls
at $4.00, I would buy some, and some more at $3.80, then at $3.50,
but had the perseverance to recognize that the last sale at $2.80
was too cheap and a great buy. A lot of trading and investing is keeping
your wits about you when all others are losing theirs. I think we
probably all agree that if we were Rip Van Winkle and had all our
money in the mattress we would be salivating at some of the current
stock prices. Which
ones? Now that’s the question. I love MU under $20 and
SUNW at $5.00. I also think a small portfolio of communications stocks
will do well, even if one or two go belly-up. Maybe a little LU, MWAV,
GLW, etc. with the money spread around. I also think a covered writing
program with the QQQ’s at $27 is a huge long-term winner.
PTI clients are probably the most qualified client group, let’s
take advantage of the current situation, not just complain about it.
Give me a call (800.821.4968) and let’s talk about some low priced
positions. Or feel free
to e-mail me at tph@ptihedge.com. |
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