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The Case for Trading Futures - The Traders Have Voted
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In a little over 4 years, since inception, average daily volume of the E-mini S&P 500® has grown from 11,000 contracts to nearly 240,000 contracts.

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E-Minis vs. SPDRs/QQQs and Stocks - Considerations
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  • Capital requirements and costs
  • Tax issues
  • Trading advantages: Ease of Trading vs stocks and options
  • Decimalization/“Tick” compression vs. futures tick
  • SPDRs, QQQs and ETFs…an implicit market based off futures…what do key market makers price off of?
  • Flat and open access for ALL; FIFO ( vs. Level 2, Level 3 screen access), as well as depth of book
  • Spread strategies ideal with stock index futures, but not with other vehicles
The Case for Trading Futures
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 Futures vs. SPDRS
E-Mini S&P 500
SPDRs (S&P 500 Dep. Receipt)
Where Traded
CME
AMEX / NYSE / ECNs
Ticker
ES
SPY
Underlying Cash
S&P 500
S&P 500
Multiplier
$50 x Index
1/10th of the S&P 500 Cash Index
Dollar Value
$55,000 per Contract
$110 Per Share
Value of Min. Fluctuation
$12.50
$0.01
Average $ Vol / Day
$11 - $13 Billion
$1.0 - $2.0 Billion
Trading Platform
Electronic-GLOBEX® Only
Specialist or ECN
Minimum Capital Req.
Margin: 7.2% ($3,938)
50% Reg. T Margin
Trans. Costs: Bid / Offer
2 - 4 Basis Points
7 - 10 Basis Points
Trans. Costs: Mgt. Fees
None
12 Basis Points per Annum
24-Hour Trading
Virtually 24-Hour Trading
No
Options
Yes
No
 
 Futures vs. QQQs
E-Mini NASDAQ 100
Nasdaq 100 ETF "QQQ"
Where Traded
CME
AMEX / NYSE / ECNs
Ticker
NQ
QQQ
Underlying Cash
Nasdaq 100 Index
Nasdaq 100 Index
Multiplier
$20
1/40th
Dollar Value
$30,000
$37.50
Avg. Daily $ Traded / Day
$4.0 - $5.0 Billion
$3.5 - $4.0 Billion
Trading Platform
Electronic-GLOBEX® Only
Specialist or ECN
Dividends
None
Yes, but small
Leverage / Capital Outlay
$4,125 or 13% of Value
50% Reg. T Margin
Trans. Costs: Bid / Offer
3 - 9 Basis Points
7 - 18 Basis Points
Trans. Costs: Fees
Commission Only
Commission + 18 bps/year
24-Hour Trading
Virtually 24-Hour Trading
No
Options
No
Yes
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The Case for Trading Futures - Tax Issues
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  • Futures are treated more favorably and receive 60/40 tax treatment
  • Equities, in order to obtain more favorable tax treatment, are subject to longer holding periods (1-year).
  • The difference can be substantial
 
Trading Advantages
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Ease of use versus stocks:
  • Totally electronic platform with fast, efficient fills and virtually 24-hour trading
  • “Round Trip” versus in-and-out commission
  • Monitoring a few key indexes vs. dozens of stocks thus eliminating traditional stock picking and associated risks such as:
    • Pre-announcements and now…..accounting minefields
  • Excellent profit potential

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Ease of use versus options:
  • Rocket Science Factor - Options traders can call market correctly and still lose money because they must juggle 4 items:
    • underlying price
    • strike price
    • volatility
    • time decay
  • Futures traders care about only 2 things:
    • an advancing market or
    • an declining market
  • Futures have more constant order flow and are usually much more friendly regarding bid/offer spreads.
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More Trading Advantages: Stocks vs. Futures--Risk and Profit Potential
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Daily Dollar Range and Volatility of Various Futures Contracts
January - December 2001
Futures
$Range
Historical Volatility
S&P 500
$5,821
21.63%
E-Mini S&P 500
$1,205
22.96%
Nasdaq 100
$8,864
53.57%
E-Mini Nasdaq 100
$1,758
54.58%
Russell 2000®
$4,470
24.09%
Euro FX
$1,223
11.44%
T-Bond
$984
10.77%
Crude Oil
$912
44.31%
Soybeans
$387
19.04%
Cattle
$318
16.69%
Corn
$177
21.40%
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"Tick Compression" vs. Futures Tick
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  • Bid/offer spread in SPY in 1990s: 12 - 37 cents
    Bid/offer spread in SPY in 2002: 4 - 12 cents
  • Bid/offer spread in QQQ in 1999: 12- 50 cents
    Bid/offer spread in QQQ in 2002: 1 - 8 cents
  • With some stocks, bid/offer is now a penny, since decimalization
  • On some ECNs, bid/offer is “sub-penny”
    Result: Slimmer profitability
    Solution: E-mini Stock Index futures
  • By design, minimum bid/offer spread is $10.00 to $12.50
    Result: Traders/Scalpers can achieve greater margins
 
ECNs, Market Makers and Implicit Markets
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  • ETF Market Makers make bid/offer spreads based on?
  • ECN bid/offers on ETFs based on?
  • These various “intermediaries” base their markets on:

FUTURES PRICING!

Dozens of other specialists and market makers are able to quote attractive bid/offer spreads because of futures

 
Open Access to All
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  • Level II screens have advantage over Level III and other systems in terms of bid/offer, inside market and dealers.
  • E-minis on GLOBEX are an equal access instrument. Anyone can join the market or better the bid/offer. First In, First Out (FIFO) levels playing field.
  • GLOBEX electronic platform has error trade policies and price transparency.
 
E-Mini Complex….Contract Specifications
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E-mini
S&P 500
E-mini
Nasdaq 100
E-mini
Russell 2000
E-mini S&P
Midcap 400
Ticker Symbol
ES
NQ
ER2
EMD
Contract Size
$50 x E-mini
S&P 500
Futures Price
$55,000
$20 x E-mini
Nasdaq 100
Futures Price
$30,000
$100 x E-mini
Russell 2000
Futures Price
$49,000
$100 x E-mini
Midcap 400
Futures Price
$50,000
Min. Price Fluctuation (Tick)
.25 Futures Index
Points = $12.50
.50 Futures Index
Points = $10.00
.10 Futures Index
Points = $10.00
.10 Futures Index
Points = $10.00
Trading Hours
Virtually 24 Hours
Virtually 24 Hours
Virtually 24 Hours
Virtually 24 Hours
Contract Months*
H,M,U,Z
H,M,U,Z
H,M,U,Z
H,M,U,Z
Last Day of Trading
8:30 AM 3rd
Friday of
Contract Month
8:30 AM 3rd
Friday of
Contract Month
8:30 AM 3rd
Friday of
Contract Month
8:30 AM 3rd
Friday of
Contract Month
Performance Bond Initial**
$3,938
$4,125
$4,350
$3,125
Performance Bond Maint.
$3,150
$3,300
$3,480
$2,500
* H = March, M = June, U = September, Z = December
** CME minimum performance bond margins as of 1/31/02 (Subject to Change)
 
Strategies: Spreading Stock Index Futures

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Many traders are content to just trade from the long or short side of the market.
However, spreads are unique strategies

  • They add flexibility
  • And allow traders to take advantage of price disparities, without having to pick the overall direction of the market.

As most market sectors headed south during the 2000-2001 correction, mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperformed by a wide margin.

Price returns:
Year
S&P 500
S&P Midcap 400
Russell 2000
2001
-13.04
-1.63
+1.03
2000
-10.14
+16.21
-4.20
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  • Strategy: Go long E-mini MidCap Futures and simultaneously short E-mini S&P 500 Futures.
  • Trader could use E-mini Russell futures in place of E-mini MidCap Futures, if he thought small stocks would outperform.
 
Advantages of Spreading Stock Index Futures
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  • In general, lower risk with spreads than with outrights
  • Divorce yourself from having to correctly predict market direction
  • Ability to profit in up and down market
  • In general, lower performance bond margins
  • Cheaper than doing strategy with baskets of stocks
 
Disclaimers

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The information within this presentation has been compiled by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, CME assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples in this brochure are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

All matters pertaining to rules and specification herein are made subject to and are superseded by official CME rules. Current CME rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications. GLOBEX® and CME® are registered trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.

Nasdaq-100 is a registered trademark of The Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc. (which with its affiliates are the Corporations). S&P 500â and S&P MidCap 400 Index are trademarks of Standard & Poor’s (S&P), a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The above marks are licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange in connection with the trading of Futures and Futures Options based on the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 Index (Products). The Products have not been passed on by the Corporations or S&P as to their legality or suitability. The products are not issued, endorsed, sold or promoted by the Corporations or S&P. THE CORPORATIONS AND S&P MAKE NO WARRANTIES AND BEAR NO LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO SUCH PRODUCTS.

"SPDRs" is a trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and has been licensed for use in connection with the listing and trading of SPDRs and MidCap SPDRs on the American Stock Exchange. These products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., and S&P makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in them.

The Russell 2000 Index is a registered trademark and servicemark of Frank Russell Company. Frank Russell Company assumes no liability in connection with the trading of any contract based on the Russell 2000 Index.

 
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